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DB
Patrick Chung (PHOTO BY: Eric Evans) |
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2007
Statistics |
Coach:
Mike Bellotti
106-52,
13 years |
2007
Record: 9-4 |
|
HOUSTON |
WON
48-27 |
at
Michigan |
WON
39-7 |
FRESNO
STATE |
WON
52-21 |
at
Stanford |
WON
55-31 |
CALIFORNIA |
LOST
24-31 |
WASHINGTON
ST |
WON
53-7 |
at
Washington |
WON
55-34 |
USC |
WON
24-17 |
ARIZONA
STATE |
WON
35-23 |
at
Arizona |
LOST
24-34 |
at
UCLA |
LOST
0-16 |
OREGON
STATE |
LOST
31-38 (2OT) |
SUN
BOWL |
South
Florida |
WON
56-21 |
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2007
Final Rankings
AP-23, Coaches-24, BCS-UR
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2008
Outlook |
The
nature of Oregon’s football
program under Mike Bellotti
has an interesting profile.
Here since 1995, he is 106-52
and has only one sub-.500 season
of his 13 here. This solstice
baby (Dec. 21) is 5-6 in bowls
(1-0 BCS record) while battling
the rival Beavers to a 7-6 mark
during his tenure. The teams
Bellotti has pieced together
are talented and reflect his
excellent recruiting strategy.
Producing quality student-athletes
happens under his eye, no doubt…
but any fans know of the trends
otherwise that send up red flags,
especially when analyzing this
upcoming campaign.
All
but one (2005) of the past six
seasons – since the 11-1
mark of ’01 – have
seen at least four losses, and
these losses have a pattern:
at least three usually happen
consecutively, almost each time
at the end of the season (four
times out of six). In 2006,
it was a 7-2 year before the
four-game skid to end…last
year, Oregon was 8-1 and ranked
No.3 when Dixon was hurt and
three straight in the L column
meant a pre-New Years Day bowl.
Coach Bellotti, with all due
respect, needs to finish the
strong campaigns he starts,
or the powers that be may need
to realize they will continue
to see similar results until
Bellotti proves otherwise or
something else changes before
he gets that chance.
This
campaign poses new challenges,
as every season does, and the
turnover has to be geared so
it works for the offense instead
of forcing this to be a “rebuilding”
year, which it easily could
be if the staff isn’t
careful. Most of the changes
are due to the departures from
the offensive backfield. Losing
a Heisman-caliber dual-threat
QB is tough, and taking his
bruising classmate Stewart (also
on many Heisman short lists
last year, and Rivals graded
the Oregon running game as the
best in the nation) with him
means the Ducks have their work
cut out. The quarterback is
the key for the season to work,
for the RBs are stacked and
ready. The right leader to us
is Nate Costa, but without his
presence this spring (knee),
it is tough to say the guy who
led them to their big Sun Bowl
win, Justin Roper, isn’t
a worthy candidate, too. Costa
takes them farther in a full
12-game grind, but will his
running dimension remain strong?
If it’s Roper to start
with – on a short leash
– he would give way to
Costa if things went sour. The
starting OL is good, but any
troubles holding that five together
would guarantee this to be a
year when merely making a bowl
game is a worthy aim.
Nick
Reed, Pat Chung and Johnny Bacon
are the senior leaders of their
respective defensive units,
and they all have an eye on
what slipped through their grasp
in ’07 (after the D held
USC to 17 points for their first
win over the conference champs
in six years). The Duck defense
can be a superior group with
so many returning starters,
so maybe ’08 will feature
lots of low scoring affairs.
That’s not a bad way to
differentiate yourself in a
conference where offense usually
trumps defense, so having a
top 10 D seems to be the only
way Oregon makes a BCS run.
The
schedule is a gauntlet. Washington,
with Jake Locker, becomes an
unpredictable game, as are most
openers while everyone is still
adjusting…the fun starts
early this year. Phew, Utah
State allows an easier foe before
journeying to Indiana for a
toughie with perennial power
Purdue, and then pesky Boise
State comes ‘a callin’…and
September isn’t even over
yet! Trips to ranked Pac Ten
foes include Southern Cal and
Arizona State, not to mention
trips to Berkeley and Corvallis.
No matter where it ranks in
SOS lists, this is one seriously
daunting docket for a 10-win
season to come from, even if
Oregon had a more established
offense. If they can hold up
and only lose two or three,
the SOS will help them in pollsters’
eyes. Bottom line – UO
earns anything they get in 2008.
Expect
a season of mixed results, meaning
the Ducks can’t waddle
by some lesser teams as they
simultaneously still beat a
few of the big boys to give
hope to the changes for 2009.
This defense should be good
enough to keep most games close
enough to win. Getting some
momentum going and avoiding
a late-season (or any three-game)
slide would work well to secure
Bellotti’s neck and buoy
hopes for next season, an acceptable
approach with the three sophomore
QBs vying to give the Ducks
their next offensive profile.
Bellotti has done more with
less, so don’t count them
out even if they get a few early
conference losses. Heeyyyy,
Eugene!!!!
Projected
2008 record: 8-4
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OREGON
*POWER RATINGS |
Offense |
Defense |
QB
- 3 |
DL
- 4 |
RB
- 3.5 |
LB
- 3.5 |
WR
- 3.5 |
DB
- 3.5 |
OL
- 3.5 |
.. |
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OREGON
2007 Statistical Rankings |
OFFENSE |
|
National |
Conf. |
Rushing: |
6 |
1 |
Passing: |
64 |
6 |
Total
Off: |
10 |
1 |
Sacks
Allow: |
48 |
4 |
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DEFENSE |
|
National |
Conf. |
Rushing: |
38 |
5 |
Passing: |
86 |
7 |
Total
Def: |
60 |
7 |
Sacks: |
15 |
4 |
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RETURNING
LEADERS |
Passing:
Justin Roper, 32-61-2, 342 yds.,
6 TD
Rushing: Andre Crenshaw,
82 att., 415 yds., 4 TD
Receiving: Jaison Williams,
55 rec., 844 yds., 8 TD
Scoring: Matt Evensen,
16-20 FG, 52-52 PAT, 1 two-pt.
conv., 102 pts.
Punting: Josh Syria,
71 punts, 41.7 avg.
Kicking: Matt Evensen,
16-20 FG, 52-52 PAT, 100 pts.
Tackles: Patrick Chung,
117 tot., 71 solo
Sacks: Nick Reed, 12
sacks
Interceptions: Jairus
Byrd, 7 for 31 yds.
Kickoff Returns: Patrick
Chung, 9 ret., 22.3 avg., 0
TD
Punt Returns: Jairus Byrd,
7 ret., 9.0 avg., 0 TD
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WR
Jaison Williams (PHOTO: Eric Evans) |
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OREGON
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OFFENSE
- 6 |
----RETURNING
STARTERS---- |
DEFENSE
- 8 |
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KEY
LOSSES |
OFFENSE:
Dennis Dixon-QB, Brady Leaf-QB,
Garren Strong-WR, Cameron Colvin-WR,
Brian Paysinger-WR, Josh Tschirgi-OG,
Pat So'oalo-OG, Geoff Schwartz-OT,
Jonathan Stewart-TB (NFL) |
DEFENSE:
David
Faaeteete-DT, Jeremy Gibbs-DT,
Kwame Agyeman-WLB, A.J. Tuitele-WLB,
Matthew Harper-FS |
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2008
OFFENSE |
QUARTERBACK
There are going to be major differences
in how polished the offense looks
to start 2008 compared to how efficient
it was when at its peak in ’07.
Most of the team’s true leaders
– Stewart, Dixon and Schwartz
– give way to younger replacements,
making this a “changing of the
guard” in Eugene that will give
the offense a totally new personality.
We all got a glimpse of what can be
at QB when Justin Roper took over
in the Sun Bowl and promptly took
the Ducks to a 56-21 win. This 6’6
Buford (GA) recruit lifted the sagging
offense with sound play, a good sign
for someone who doesn’t have
much experience. Roper looks to be
a solid starter, but he has to see
how things play out with classmate
Nate Costa. Costa blew his knee out
badly in an October ’07 practice,
but was ahead of Roper on the depth
chart when it happened. Costa is a
dual-threat, so he obviously brings
a dimension to the QB role with which
coach Bellotti can open up the playbook
more, ala Dixon. Reports from insiders
legitimize each of these two QB’s
claim to being the Duck field general,
so only time will tell how it plays
out. The starter won’t be Cody
Kempt, who stunk the joint up when
they lost in Los Angeles after Dixon
had gone down. Spring didn’t
elicit much clarity on the issue;
but one thing was clear, that progress
- across the board - wasn’t
coming along as anticipated. “I
don’t like the execution of
the offense,” Bellotti said
halfway through spring. “I think
there is a lot to be desired, but
when you go from a fifth-year guy
at quarterback to a second-year guy
(at QB), there’s obviously some
growing pains. I think when you go
from a third-year starter at tailback,
two of them in a sense, to second-year
guys the same things happen. So, there’s
a lot to be worked out.”
RUNNING
BACK
We think the depth chart at RB will
work itself out for guaranteed results
by fall. One thing hindering notions
of progress is the delayed return
of Jeremiah Johnson. The co-No.1 with
Stewart until he hurt his knee, Johnson
wasn’t in the full-contact mix
during spring. Andre Crenshaw is a
smaller back than Johnson, but he
did a nice job filling in. The need
for a banger to replace Stewart looks
to have two guys vying for the spot.
Ex-LB Malachi Lewis has strength and
sprinter’s speed to go with
his experience as H-back/TE in the
spread looks, but it’s JUCO-transfer
LaGarrette Blount who was seen plowing
over guys this spring and impressing
everyone in sight.
RECEIVER
/ TIGHT END
Ed Dickson is a nice blend of toughness
and soft hands, as is academic all-conference
Matt Larkin. Dickson will again be
a major piece of he offense after
finishing second in receptions last
year. Not much smaller than these
two is the Duck’s leading receiver
over the past two years, senior Jaison
Williams. This is one leader still
present. Aaron Pflugrad emerged during
last year’s true freshman campaign,
as did Jeff Maehi, who changed sides
of the ball in late October and finished
seventh on the team in catches. Then
there is Jamere Holland – he
was the fastest guy on USC before
transferring here (won California
state 100m & 200m in prep; 10.36
seconds in the 100 is his personal
best). He will definitely see game
time in his first eligibly season.
Derrick Jones could give Holland a
run for his mullah as fastest Duck,
but his suspension looks like a glass
half empty, so to speak, making his
presence this fall a longshot. How
new recruit Chris Harper fits in will
be interesting, because the staff
has told the hopeful QB that he is
too good to keep off of the field…he
seems like a possible “slash”
type who will do a little of everything
to keep opponents off balance when
he’s in.
OFFENSIVE
LINE
Contingent on establishing the running
game is the survival of the OL, and
Max Unger’s health is paramount
for the unit to reach it’s potential.
Unger has moved inside, but he can
play anywhere (like when he started
at left tackle his first two years).
Another former tackle who has successfully
moved inside is Mark Lewis, who started
every game there in ’07 with
similar success. Holmes and Kaiser
have had a healthy competition to
fill out the interior, with Kaiser
ahead of his classmate by a hair.
Fenuki Tupou is surprisingly agile
for his size, but he supplants Unger
and Lewis so they can plow inside
and do the pulling. Hucko also does
well in open space when athletic DEs
power/speed rush the Duck QB. Hucko
started a bit, so he looks good, but
then it drops off as one looks down
the two-deep. Sure, there are seniors
as OL backups, but the reviews of
how well the second team did this
spring leave coach Bellotti fearful
of the injury bug. Hamani Stevens
is the No.2 center in this year's
national class (Rivals), so maybe
he can shake things up in a good way
up front.
Don’t
hold your breath that Oregon will
remain the top offense in the league.
The talent levels are high, making
developments an eventuality that will
then elicit wins, just not in as commanding
a fashion as when Dixon was under
center.
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C
Max Unger (PHOTO BY: Eric Evans)
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OREGON
2007 DEPTH CHART
Returning Starters/Key
Players |
OFFENSE |
QB |
Nathan
Costa-So (6-1, 220) |
Justin
Roper-So (6-6, 205) |
TB |
Jeremiah
Johnson-Sr (5-10, 205) |
Andre
Crenshaw-Jr (5-11, 195)
LeGarrette Blount-Jr (6-2, 229) |
WR |
Jamere
Holland-So (6-1, 190) |
Drew
Davis-So (6-1, 202)
Derrick Jones-Sr (6-1, 180) (susp.) |
WR |
Jaison
Williams-Sr (6-5, 240) |
Terence
Scott-Sr (5-11, 170) |
WR |
Jeff
Maehl-So (6-1, 178) |
Aaron
Pflugrad-So (5-10, 172) |
TE |
Ed
Dickson-Jr (6-5, 240) |
Malachi
Lewis-So (6-3, 215) |
OT |
Fenuki
Tupou-Sr (6-6, 322) |
Darrion
Weems-Fr (6-5, 300) |
OG |
Jordan
Holmes-So (6-4, 295) |
Charlie
Carmichael-Fr (6-4, 296) |
C |
Max
Unger-Sr (6-5, 300) |
Jeff
Kendall-Sr (6-3, 297) |
OG |
Mark
Lewis-Sr (6-4, 308) |
Jon
Teague-Sr (6-2, 301) |
OT |
Jacob
Hucko-Sr (6-7, 317) |
C.E.
Kaiser-So (6-4, 290) |
K |
Matt
Evensen-Sr (6-1, 194) |
Daniel
Padilla-So (6-2, 210) |
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2008
DEFENSE |
Only
three starters are left from a defense
that did a better job in ’07
than it did in ’06. That makes
more improvements for this campaign
probable, if not guaranteed. The key
last year was playing smart –
60 more yards allowed per game from
the prior year meant an average of
three less points allowed each week.
The offense scoring eight points more
each week helped it all equal more
wins, but without the same lethal
point production from their offense,
those same marginal differences will
be the pivot between another banner
year and one where the Ducks finish
around .500, like in ’06.
DEFENSIVE
LINE
Nick Reed had the fourth-most tackles-for-loss
in the nation (22.5) and he tied for
the ninth-most sacks (12); this kind
of superior stopping will continue
since Salt Lake- (and JUCO-) product
Will Tukuafu also returns to make
it impossible to stop both he and
Reed. Cole Linehan is decent inside,
but he has yet to make many big, impacting
plays. On the other hand, Ra’Shon
Harris has impressed with his lagniappe,
and as the only guy over 300lbs on
the DL two-deep, his presence is imperative
for run stuffing success. What the
Ducks do get with their athletic approach
to the DL is interchangeable hats
that can realign, stunt and ultimately
confuse their OL counterparts.
LINEBACKER
Kenny Rowe will be moving back to
LB to add to the confusion, likely
being found much of the time in a
two-point stance on the line. Rowe's
'07 stat line - eight tackles, six
TFLs and five of those were sacks
- speaks of what was seen all this
spring, that no one can effectively
block him. Senior Johnny Bacon will
probably keep his starting assignment
after knee troubles took him out (vs.
Arizona State), but his replacement,
Casey Matthews, has a keen nose for
the ball, making him a 1A at MIKE
or a shoe-in for any other needs.
The other returning starter is senior
Jerome Boyd - his SAM slot will not
be considered a DB spot anymore, like
it has been of late. Coincidentally,
Boyd was originally a safety who has
built himself up naturally, so he
fits into the hybrid prototype of
this D to a ‘T’. He and
Bacon sat out spring drills, but each
is expected back. Kevin Garrett seems
like the logical choice at WILL, but
he is another bulked up safety, making
Oregon a bit small at LB. Hanna and
Turner, two RS froshes who have size
(with Hanna supposedly the sharper
player), fill out a deep LB corps
that will be the guts of the defense.
DEFENSIVE
BACK
Six-footers Thurmond and Byrd had
12 INTs together, forming the top
pair of corners in the league (and
one of the tops in the nation). Both
are back, as are backups Glasper and
Jackson to complete the two-deep with
same faces. Still, the best news has
to be AP All-American Pat Chung coming
back after nearly declaring for the
NFL draft. Chung, from Kingston, Jamaica,
was a huge factor for why the pass
defense gave up 76 more yards per
game from the previous year but still
kept (foes to) the same efficiency
rating. He'll be the foundation in
back, while Titus Jackson and Marvin
Johnson appear set to battle over
the open free safety slot. But the
name we keep hearing from coach Bellotti
is Todd Doxey. All of this works well
for the secondary, and especially
well so the entire defense can repeat
as tops in the nation for tackles-for-loss.
But, like many facts pertaining to
the D, it's a dual-edged sword, because
if the Ducks had so many TFLs yet
still allowed 5.1 yards per play,
doesn't that say they gave up alot
of big plays? Consistency is evidently
an issue, though, the defense did
rule its offensive counterparts throughout
spring. Knowing how the offense is
struggling for identity, the D (and
we) won't know if this is to become
the superior group they have the potential
to be until fall.
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DE
Nick Reed (PHOTO BY: Eric Evans)
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OREGON
2007 DEPTH CHART
Returning Starters/Key
Players |
DEFENSE |
DE |
Will
Tukuafu-Jr (6-4, 279) |
Terrell
Turner-Fr (6-3, 245)
John Laidet-Fr (6-5, 225) |
DT |
Ra'Shon
Harris-Sr (6-5, 321) |
Justin
Thompson-Jr (6-5, 280) |
DT |
Cole
Linehan-Sr (6-4, 295) |
Tonio
Celotto-So (6-3, 268) |
DE |
Nick
Reed-Sr (6-2, 255) |
Brandon
Bair-So (6-7, 250) |
SLB |
Jerome
Boyd-Sr (6-2, 220) |
Eddie
Pleasant-Fr (5-11, 225) |
MLB |
John
Bacon-Sr (6-3, 230) |
Casey
Matthews-So (6-2, 220) |
WLB |
Terrance
Pritchett-Fr (6-2, 208) |
Spencer
Paysinger-So (6-3, 222)
Kevin Garrett-Jr (5-11, 215) (susp.) |
CB |
Jairus
Byrd-Jr (6-0, 208) |
Willie
Glasper-Jr (5-11, 184) |
CB |
Walter
Thurmond-Jr (6-0, 185) |
Talmadge
Jackson-So (5-10, 182) |
ROV |
Patrick
Chung-Sr (6-0, 210) |
Marvin
Johnson-So (5-10, 205) |
FS |
T.J.
Ward-Jr (5-11, 191) |
Javes
Lewis-Fr (6-1, 185) |
P |
Josh
Syria-Sr (6-3, 232) |
.. |
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2008
SPECIAL TEAMS |
Punter
Josh Syria does the trick, getting distance
and control to come into play for his efforts.
This means a net result equivocal to his
rankings. Kicker Matt Evensen is a beast
on return men with his track background
allowing him to catch/tackle most. Teammate
Dan Padilla and he combined to go 19-for-24
in FGAs, so this area runs deep for UO.
Pflugrad on PRs should work, and Crenshaw
and Chung on kicks offers speed galore.
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