The majority of the Gator backs – the top three in yardage are responsible for almost 60% of the ‘08 ground total - are sub-200lbs and quicker as a group than any in the land. Freshmen Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps have surpassed all-world junior Percy Harvin for rushing production, and this spells trouble for second-guessing tacklers. Laterally development on a majority of their rushing plays means that these Gators usually have opponents running in every direction except towards the actual player with the ball. Add in the more straight ahead styles of Tim Tebow, Kestahn Moore and USC-transfer Emmanuel Moody, and it makes sense that UF ranks No.1 for rushing in the run-tough SEC and No.11 in the entire FBS.

One big question surrounds Florida’s ability to methodically power run and chew clock if the need is there late in the game. Needing a score with only seven minutes left in the game, can Tebow lead a sustained drive so as to leave Sam Bradford the least amount of time possible to retaliate? Alabama, like Mississippi (the one team that beat Florida) Tennessee and Miami, proved that plugging the running game hinders UF’s ability to put up points. These four foes held the Gators to their four lowest rushing totals, and hence their four lowest scoring games. You can bet this fact hasn’t eluded OU defensive coordinator Brent Venables.

When Gator OC Dan Mullen (recently took the head coaching job at Mississippi State, but will stay on and do the play-calling for the title game) spreads out the OU defense with four- and five-WR/RB/TE sets, Venables has to have his troops realizing that UF runs it 62% of the time and quite often from such deceptive looks.

Tebow is still the ground weapon of choice. But unlike last year, when Tebow ran it 43% of UF’s running plays, Tebow only gets 30.7% of the running tries this season. Foes cannot just key on No.15 anymore, and the results – a whopping team average of 5.96 yards per carry, which is the third-highest average in the nation – speak for themselves. Only 42 yards were lost by the top four Gator ball carriers who are not TimTebow (his sack numbers muddle the team stats), proving how hard it is to get any kind of TFL on any of them.

Ok, so the Gators run it more often than not and deceptively well. What will Oklahoma do to stem the Gator ground game? Remember, this is not some pushover OU rush D…they rank 18th and allow only 3.24 yards per try. All four of their DL starters – including injured (ankle) Preseason Big 12 Defensive POY Auston English – earned All-conference honors. Each backup has also produced nicely when given the chance. All are found in opponent’s backfields often enough, but as the nation’s No.3 sacking unit, they will have to be careful and “stay home” more than just their usual all-out pursuing, or else.

The best rushing foes have exploited OU for their over-pursuit. OU’s five best rushing foes all tagged the Sooners for at least 160 rushing yards, with Baylor, Nebraska and Oklahoma State getting 194, 204 and 198, respectively. Simply put, better rushing teams usually succeed against Oklahoma. Florida surely knows this and has the kind of rushing attack that will work OU this way. Guessing what kind of play Florida is running is next to impossible. Holding UF to 150 yards or less seems like a nice round number at which OU can realistically aim…a ‘damage control’ approach will behoove the Sooners. This is just reality when playing a team like Florida, and Oklahoma copping to such is important for keeping morale up as Florida has its ground success(es). If they can truly shut the Gator rushing game down, then you will likely see OU go back to Norman with the Waterford Crystal.

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Look, we all know the chaos that happens on some special teams plays can define a game. The athletes from both of these schools are capable of forcing miscues and capitalizing on them instantaneously. Given these unplanned occurrences are what they are, unplanned, evaluating the things that will happen the way they’re supposed to on special teams is how we’ll proceed.

Florida has a marked advantage in most ST dimensions. There are enough examples of this to convince even the most skeptical Sooner fan. Observe the evidence…

There is a four-yard difference between the two teams’ net punting averages (in favor of UF). This is due to Florida’s sophomore punter Chas Henry and his 42.8 yards per punt average as much as it’s due to first-teamers inhabiting the coverage teams. Again, OU is not poor here, but UF is so strong (longest punt return allowed in ’08 was 20 yards) that they have to be favored when field position battles become critical.

On kick returns, the absence of DeMarco Murray can likely be replaced by Juaquin Iglesias and his breakaway speed. But Iglesias had only one good KR (69 yards in the opener vs. FCS Chattanooga), and a paltry 20.6 average otherwise. Ryan Broyles is the team’s third-leading receiver, and as a hotshot RS frosh who has the Sooner’s lone return for a score, we will be hearing from Broyles for years to come. But this all seems to add up to less than the combined return powers of All-American (FWAA) Brandon James. His consistency to get yards in almost any type of situation is key for coach Meyer to guarantee no mistakes. This Gator team rarely starts a drive pinned deep in its own territory thanks to James.

The first-team aspect of the Gator special teams translated into eight blocked kicks. Oklahoma blocked only one this year. RB Jeff Demps blocked two, as did the unstoppable Carlos Dunlap. There is a mutually exclusive pride that surrounds making the Florida special teams that goes beyond just playing offense and/or defense. Guys strive to be chosen by special teams coach Urban Meyer, shifting the Gator’s practices up a gear or two just due to this competitive edge.

A tight, low scoring game would definitely make the focus on the special teams that much more important to the outcome. But we really don’t think it will come down to this. The few punts that will occur will be crucial, and any three-point tries obviously carry weight. In a game that features two huge offenses, the final score will be decided mostly by whose defense will do their job better.

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So, we’ve laid it all out for you to analyze. All of the most important factors have been considered. How will it all play out? Only the shadow knows, but we can make some good guesses as to certain scenarios that are sure to be seen.

Whereas Oklahoma has scored 60 points in five-straight games, Florida’s first-team D has allowed only three TDs in the last seven games (allowed 0 TDs in five of them). Before the 31-20 win over Bama in the SEC title game, UF themselves had put up at least 42 points in seven consecutive tilts. OU has held foes under 20 points only four times, so their defensive reputation is a harder case to make. In the macro approach of breaking these facts down, the classic answer would be that great defense trumps great offense. But stopping the Sooner’s record-setting offense enough for the win may prove to be too tall of an order for a young UF secondary that has yet to see anything as effective as OU’s offense.

Florida needs some defensive turnovers to assure a win. Without any, stopping the Sooner offense on pure ability is a 50-50 proposition. OU leads the nation with only nine TOs lost, but UF is tied for fourth with 33 TOs gained. The numbers are similar for Florida’s offense (11 TOs lost) and Oklahoma’s D (32 gained), making the entire turnover battle a huge focus. But we all know it’s not how many turnovers your team gets, but what you do once you get them. Whoever takes the most advantage of their opponent’s missteps will probably win.

Right off, both teams like to go out on opponents. The first quarter is one of the best for each squad for scoring and for holding foes to their lowest quarterly outputs (UF won their collective first quarters 167-20; OU did too by a whopping 225-30). Then OU’s defense seems to collapse through opponent’s first sets of adjustments (foes scored 120 second quarter points), and even though they’ve been good for 233 in the second quarter themselves, this is a significant trend to note. OU also sees its own offensive output sputter from there on out, with a mere 153 points collectively in third quarters and a measly 93 scored in fourths. The Sooner’s foes nearly matched them with 85 points collectively in their last frame. UF has a similar pattern, but their worst quarter, the fourth, only sees a slip to 134-52. Ostensibly, Oklahoma needs to have a lead going into the fourth quarter.

Look for UF to initially take the run away and force Bradford to beat them. Is this a good approach? Well, if you focus right off on stopping the pass and let the Sooners get the run going, Bradford will have his guys getting more open as extra hats get pulled into the box. Then he’ll assuredly light the UF secondary up, so taking the run away at least gives them a way to string together three defensive stops and force a change of possession.

The Sooners have to come out throwing it to keep UF from feeling like they have the OU running game in check. Nickel and dime them, so to speak, to keep the Gators guessing. Then stretch the field a few times to really open up some running lanes. Watch how open the Sooner WRs will be once this cycle of play calling can play itself out. From there, a nice marbling of run and pass can have its optimal effect on a softened Gator D. If the Gator D feels it right away, the UF offense can close the deal early…really.

On D, OU will try to keep those short, chippy-choppy types of plays the Gators love in front of them so as to limit the YAC that kills the Gator’s foes. This is what Ohio State tried to do, and it worked in slowing UF down, but not in fully stopping their productive/scoring efforts. But what Buckeye LBs Laurenaitis and Freeman struggled to do – keep the underneath passing in check – will be accomplished more by Travis Lewis and Keenan Clayton. But in forcing UF to score in 10 or more plays rather than in five or less, you only slow them marginally. With a defense that chomps down on production a majority of the time, OU will need to match UF in defensive stops. Many can’t conceive of OU being behind and chasing the Gators, but if this scenario plays out, the Sooners will have to keep pace more than the other way around.

You can likely see the trends we have presented – in most of them, OU is playing catch-up. The Sooners catching the Gators sleeping with some early scores is important, and hence the only way they likely win. Sure, a strong OU offense could make up points, but if they become predictable, the odds of a rapidly paced comeback are pretty slim against the well-tested Gators. Forcing foes to catch up…that is how UF usually takes such a big lead, so OU has to take what UF gives them and not force too much.

With such a great line, Oklahoma needs to wear Florida’s front seven down, and this Sooner OL is capable of such. A tired Florida DL will mean less pressure and more late-game success for Bradford’s efforts, and therefore for OU in general. Whoever wins the battle up front when OU is on offense will likely be the winner.

By the third quarter, the Gators will see their offense really start going. Halftime adjustments will allow the Gator D to improve just enough to check the current Heisman winner and disturb his usual effortless flow. Once rattled, it will play out like it did against Texas – in a close game, the Sooner players will not know how to pull it together in time, especially against a team like UF. In the end, the Florida players/coaches can pull on their experiences from two-years ago’s BCS title game and will know better how to overcome any adversity still affecting them. Just like in UF-Bama, OU-Texas and other huge games, whoever wins the fourth quarter will win the BCS Championship.

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