By
Dave
Hershorin
October 24, 2006
Once again, I find myself grasping
for gridiron straws. Another busy weekend that included
little sit-down time means only writing about what I
really know on this subject, which many of you already
realize is very little. But as the weather becomes cooler
while the leaves turn and fall, it couldn’t be
anything but football that defines the greatest time
of the year.
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In a conference laden with highly-ranked
powerhouses, Arkansas is the only team still undefeated
in league play as they quietly sit in the catbird’s
seat atop the SEC West. Their 38-3 domination of Mississippi
makes them 6-1 and 4-0. In league play, only LSU has
allowed fewer points, and only Florida and Georgia have
scored more. The Razorback’s secret? Few have
noticed that Houston Nutt is starting a true freshman
at QB, but anyone who has seen Mitch Mustain manage
the offense realizes that 2006’s No.2 drop-back
prospect has proven his worth by now and deserves the
helm. Mustain’s first showing was in the opener
(loss) against the Trojans, and his limited 4-for-6
performance was a window unto the next four years in
Fayetteville. This was a team which many prognosticators
knew could succeed with 10 starters returning both on
offense and defense. Still, two sophomore RBs combined
with a sophomore returning QB (then-starter Casey Dick)
meant most were playing it by ear with respect to the
Razorbacks’ chances. Then Mustain emerged, and,
along with the SEC’s best rushing attack (since
2005), foes now have their hands full. Nutt is not crazy
– Darren McFadden, Felix Jones & Co. run it
64% of the time and have earned their ranking as the
nation’s sixth-best rushing offense – for
the coach realizes the formula for winning. But to have
such maturity come forth from this youngster could never
have been expected. Mustain, McFadden and Jones stand
out on a team otherwise manned by experienced upperclassmen,
a team that could easily represent the SEC in the BCS.
With wins already against West division rivals
Alabama and Auburn, Arkansas only needs to
survive tussles with LSU, South Carolina and Tennessee
to get to Atlanta (for the SEC championship game). If
they can emerge from these last three big games with
only one conference loss, these Razorbacks have a great
shot at upending Florida come December 2.
Looking at the chances that Southern
Cal goes undefeated, most see their last three home
games as the Trojan’s best shot at a loss. But
after witnessing the trouble Notre Dame had at home
in dealing with Pac Ten underdog UCLA, USC’s finale
(away…well, across town) against the Bruins just
might be their undoing. The Irish needed last minute
magic – a 45-yard TD pass from Brady Quinn to
Jeff Samardzija with :27 seconds left – to beat
the upstart Bruins after ND’s statistically commanding
efforts. It was actually only the third time in Notre
Dame history that they won a game with a TD in the last
:30 seconds. But UCLA sophomore starting QB Pat Cowan,
who hadn’t thrown a collegiate pass until this
year’s trial-by-fire, continues to impress as
he quickly grasps the subtleties needed for success.
OK, so he is 1-2 as a starter, but he has kept his team
in the last two games, both losses (by a total of 13
points) against top 25 opponents. Given that Cowan will
be that much further along by the season ender, USC
has to guard against thinking that their rivals are
ripe for the pickin’ an eighth-straight time.
The second-best team in Los Angeles has the 11th-ranked
rushing and the 10th total defense (both conference
bests), leads the country in defensive third-down efficiency,
is 13th in both tackles-for loss and sacks, and has
the nation’s top kicker in senior Justin Medlock.
UCLA is currently the best team not to be receiving
a single vote in any of the big polls. Pete Carroll
has to keep his team focused for their last regular
season game to assure that the (possibly then) undefeated
Trojans don’t stumble as they reach for the BCS
title game.
Texas’ 22-20 win on a last second
field goal in Lincoln may prove that these Longhorns
have taken only a few steps back from last year’s
national champions. But, moreover, it seems to prove
how improved Nebraska now is since going 30-20
over the past four years. At 6-2, the Cornhuskers’
only blemishes are against the participants in last
year’s BCS finale. NU has a balanced offense led
by senior signal-caller Zac Taylor, the country’s
eighth-rated passer who has 16 TDs offset by only three
INTs. Nebraska’s showdown November 4th at home
against surprising Missouri is the only thing in their
way from facing Texas in a rematch for the Big 12 title.
But whoever wins the Big 12 North has that division’s
best chance in three years (since Kansas State surprised
the Sooners 35-7) to win back the conference crown.
You have to give it to Texas for how little they’ve
dropped off, especially with freshman Colt McCoy taking
the reigns with such command from hard-to-follow phenom
Vince Young. But with only three Big 12 teams sporting
a losing record, this league now takes over as the second
most competitive in the country (next to the SEC), and
the Longhorns are nowhere near a lock for the crown.
Of the seven remaining unbeaten teams,
the Big East claims three of them. Many saw No.4 West
Virginia and No.6 Louisville competing for the smallest
BCS-aligned conference’s title, but few felt Rutgers
was a threat (including ourselves, who had the Scarlet
Knights outside of our preseason top 50). The boys from
New Brunswick went into Pittsburgh Saturday and dealt
the then-one-loss Panthers a 20-10 blow that knocked
them from atop the league standings. No.14 Rutgers
boasts the nation’s 2nd-ranked total and 3rd-best
scoring defense, and their 8th-ranked rushing
offense is as methodical as it is unflashy. But WVU
has the country’s best rushing offense to bolster
their 5th-ranked total and 3rd scoring offense, which
is complimented by their No.17 total defense (which
is 10th in scoring allowed). Louisville’s offensive
stats aren’t far behind (7th in rushing and 10th
in passing place them 2nd total and 6th in scoring),
and they lead the Big East in rushing defense while
placing second in the conference (8th in the nation)
for scoring D. It all adds up to some terribly good
football, though only one school in the Big East (Cincinnati
at 17th) ranks in the top 50 for its strength of schedule.
These three unbeatens still have yet to face off, and
within the scenario that Louisville falls to both WVU
and Rutgers in their first two games of November, the
December 2 game between the Mountaineers and Scarlet
Knights likely becomes a by-default conference championship,
possibly with both still unscathed coming in. If the
Ohio State-Michigan game two weeks earlier also features
two unbeatens for the Big Ten title, it would be the
first time in history that two conferences would be
determined in the last week of regular season with all
four combatants having no losses. As a dazed Jasper
said on The Simpsons when he was thawed out of the Quickie-Mart
freezer section – “…what a time to
be alive”.
Lagniappe
Speaking
of strength of schedule, Stanford was rated by us as
having the toughest slate for this season. But whereas
most thought they could win a handful of games, the
Cardinals have thus far tanked in all eight. With USC
up next, a resurgent Washington Huskie squad after that,
and Cal to end, their home game with Oregon State on
November 18th looks like the only chance for Palo Alto’s
best to earn a W…Northern Illinois senior RB Garrett
Wolfe has had his productivity stemmed for two straight
weeks now. Held to 25 yards against Western Michigan,
it was Temple this time that focused all their might
into stopping the former-Heisman hopeful (Wolfe had
45 rushing yards on 17 tries against the Owls). On his
way to challenge Barry Sanders’ single-season
record (2,628) just two weeks ago, Wolfe now
leads Rutgers sophomore Ray Rice by only 16 yards per
game…Speaking of Temple, they remain
the only school in I-A without any positive yardage
for punt returns. The Owls’ five returns have
netted negative seven yards…UTEP is best in punt
returns. The Miners’ seven return tries have netted
234 yards and two TDs…Western Michigan senior
LB Ameer Ismail surged into the national lead for sacks
with a record-tying six sack game against Ball State.
He tied Louisville’s Elvis Dumervil’s effort
against Kentucky from last year…Junior CB Dwight
Lowery leads the nation with eight INTs after just six
games. He is on pace to break Al Worley’s
single-season record of 14 (Washington, 1968)…I
have to mention the Michigan State 41-38 comeback win
over Northwestern. Down 38-3 with 9:54 left in the third-quarter,
the Spartans staged the greatest comeback in I-A history.
The previous mark was overcoming a 31-point deficit,
which was accomplished by both Maryland in 1984 (vs.
Miami) and Ohio State in 1989 (vs. Minnesota)…Utah
State, which had scored only one TD in its first four
games (on an INT return), has piled up 83 points in
their last four since accepting the resignation of OC
Mike Santiago…New Mexico State and Hawai’i
lead the nation in passing offense, both averaging over
400 yards per game (419 and 411, respectively). But
when they faced off last Saturday, neither was able
to hit the 400 yard mark for aerial success (330 and
353). The Rainbow Warriors, which upset the Aggies’
homecoming festivities by winning 49-30 in Las Cruces,
easily lead the nation with 29 passing TDs and a 72.5
completion percentage (the only team over 70%)…Wisconsin,
which ranked 45th in pass efficiency defense while giving
up 25 passing TDs last year, presently leads in this
category and in allowing only two TDs via the air…Florida
has allowed only one ground score…As
a team, Tennessee has 52 tackles-for-loss, but somehow
all of them are unassisted. San Diego State has 23 TFLs,
also with none assisted. Somehow, the official scorekeepers
have to be missing some of the action…
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