By
Dave
Hershorin
January 4, 2007
WHAT: BCS
National Championship Game
WHO: No.1
Ohio State vs. No.2 Florida
WHEN: Monday
January 8, 2007 – 8:00 pm EST
WHERE:
University of Phoenix Stadium – Glendale, Arizona
TV COVERAGE:
FOX
This is it.
The big one for all the marbles. The grand finale. The
one we’ve been waiting for all year. What college
football fans live for. It’s national championship
time, and you’ve come to the right place for a
complete breakdown of what we will see come January
8th.
We will attempt
to give you the best scouting report for what these
two top BCS teams will deliver that night in Glendale.
It really is a very even matchup, but there are subtle
factors which we will point out that should give you
the best 4-1-1 on who is likely to come out ahead and
why. Still, it is too close to say that one team definitely
has an outright advantage, so read into these factoids
and extract the pigskin insight that you will. But once
the results are in, you can bank that something you’ve
read here will be the reason why the winning team prevailed.
(click on each Category
for complete breakdown)
Coaching
– The differences between these two great coaches
are too close to call. Many know the prolific rise of
Urban Meyer (50-12 all-time as head coach). In two years
at Bowling Green, Meyer set MAC records for points scored
(2002) with his “spread” approach before
being pulled to Utah. In his second year there, the
Utes became the first mid-major to make it to a BCS
bowl (as they easily beat Pitt 35-7 in the 2005 Fiesta;
Meyer is 3-0 all-time in bowls). Now in his second year
at Florida (21-4), Meyer has the Gators in position
to win it all for the first time since 1996. He is the
first Gator head coach to have beaten rivals Tennessee,
Georgia and Florida State in his first two years at
the helm. Meyer’s innovations on offense and strong
results on defense have made him possibly the hottest
coaching prospect since Nick Saban and – hello
– Jim Tressel. His prowess on the pitch has even
afforded him strong speculation by NFL teams for head
coaching considerations.
But how many
of you know that Meyer is from Ohio (Ashtabula), and
that he earned his bachelors in psychology from Univ.
of Cincinnati (played DB; 13th round pick in 1982 MLB
amateur draft at SS) as well as his masters in sports
administration from OSU? His first coaching experience
came as a graduate assistant for the Buckeyes (1986
– Tight Ends; 1987 – Wide Receivers), so
this game has more meaning than many realize for Meyer.
But the legend
of Jim Tressel (197-70-2 all-time; 62-13 at OSU) is
just as meteoric and Ohio-centric. Born in Mentor, Ohio,
Tressel’s father played briefly at Ohio State
before WWII. As a kid, he used to shag balls for neighbor
Lou “The Toe” Groza. Earning an undergraduate
degree in education at Baldwin Wallace (Berea, OH) from
1971-74, he was also an all-conference QB playing for
his father (who won the Division III national title
there in 1978). He then went on to Akron (masters in
education) and was a graduate assistant there in his
first coaching position. He was at Ohio State as an
assistant from 1983-85 (QBs, WRs, and RBs) just before
Meyer. In 1986, he took his first head coaching position
at I-AA Youngstown State, where he would take the Penguins
to the playoffs 10 times in 15 years, winning the national
title four times (1991, ’93, ’94 and ’97)
and placing second twice (1992, ’99). The Buckeyes
came calling after they went 14-10 from 1999-2000, but
more importantly had gone 4-13-1 versus arch-rival Michigan
their previous 18 tries (UM providing the Buckeyes’
only regular season losses in 1993, ’94 and ’96).
At a basketball game just after being hired, the school’s
22nd head coach addressed the student body at halftime,
guaranteeing a victory in Ann Arbor his first year.
Though 7-5 in 2001, they did win against the Wolverines
26-20 at the Big House, and his 5-1 record against UM
– as well as his 4-1 bowl record – means
his contract runs through (at least) 2012.
What Tressel
may be most proud of is his similarity to Buckeye coaching
legend Woody Hayes. The 2001 Coach of the Year set a
school record - 56 of his players in 2005 finished with
a GPA over 3.0 while the entire team averaged 2.81,
reflecting a focus as much on education as on football
just like coach Hayes. Meyer, too, has an old-school
approach and has graduated 80% of his players so far,
well above the national average of 65%.
Tressel is
9-2 at OSU against top 10 foes, has finished in the
top five three times in five years and won the national
title in his second year (2002-03), a feat Meyer is
trying to now duplicate. Tressel has these Buckeyes
on a 19-game tear, the nation’s current longest
win streak, whereas Meyer won 20 straight from the end
of 2003 (Utah) through early 2005 (Florida).
One advantage
Tressel has over Meyer is that his team is made up solely
of his own recruits, and the Buckeye’s dominating
results reflect this. Meyer deals with Ron Zook-recruited
players still getting the finer points of his schemes,
though Meyer rotates true freshman and No.1 dual-threat
recruit QB Tim Tebow in with exemplary results. With
so many great athletes on defense, the Gator stoppers
have caught on to what Meyer is preaching. It is the
UF offense that still needs polish due to lacking experience
in the spread.
But with
five-plus weeks to prepare for OSU, wily Meyer will
have a plan for victory for which Tressel won’t
be fully ready. Now, that is not to say that Tressel
& Co. can’t make the adjustments needed to
combat Meyers’ plans, for Jimbo will have had
seven-plus weeks to engineer his own unique approach
for defeating UF. It comes down to adjustments, and
then – even more importantly - adjustments to
the other teams adjustments. And given the different
levels of competition each has faced (Florida has faced
a notably tougher slate and much better defenses), Meyer
has done an overall better job in 2006 of figuring out
opponent’s game-plans and then coming out on top.
Give Tressel
the nod for his experience in a past national championship
game, but give Meyer the advantage for knowing the role
of the underdog so as to sneak up and snatch victory
when few think he can. Meyer has also faced the SEC
gauntlet and gotten this far while Tressel has beaten
up on the much milder Big Ten (though OSU avoided Wisconsin
(11-1) and Purdue (8-5), two of the league’s other
four winning teams). Overall, this dimension is just
too close to call. Most any other coach would be at
a slight disadvantage against either’s unique
approach, but against each other, it’s an even
matchup of pigskin prowess and ability to motivate.
Quarterback
– This
is a much closer dimension than many may realize. With
so many accolades (Davey O’Brien, Heisman), Troy
Smith would seem to be the runaway favorite against
Chris Leak. And then when you factor in the backups
- the real game experience of fellow senior Justin Zwick
over freshman role player Tim Tebow - advantage Ohio
State, right? Well, it isn’t that clear cut, but
OSU is better overall here.
Smith is
easily the soundest QB in all of college football. He
has learned the art of being a dropback guy, even though
he has the ability to run at will and run very well.
He has been on the big stage and felt the pressure of
being the leader of the nation’s top team all
year, performing well on all levels. With all of that
said, one still must look at who he has done it against.
Most point to the fact that OSU beat a pair of number
two’s and that means he has been tested. Not really,
for Texas’ 98th-ranked and Michigan’s No.75
pass defenses were easily deciphered and conquered.
Florida’s may only rank 51st, but with a ranking
of sixth for all-important pass efficiency defense,
their athletic depth has proven effective and they will
challenge Smith like no opponent has so far. We predict
Smith will have some aerial success, but he is going
to have to get those feet moving with Gator pass rushers
breathing quickly down his neck. This is one game where
Smith’s patience needs to be shortened a notch
or two – if guys aren’t open, Ohio State
will pay if Smith doesn’t motor for the few yards
he might have available. Realize that Smith has only
had one 300+ yard passing game (316 vs. Michigan) and
that this year his ground stats are the lowest of his
three years as a starter. Like Vince Young showed in
last year’s title game, Smith’s feet could
very well be the deciding factor either way. Zwick
was the OSU starter in 2004 until his inconsistency
saw Smith replace him by the sixth game. Zwick saw some
action in early 2005 and did better, but has thrown
only 31 passes since then. Zwick would not be expected
to bring to the table what Smith does if inserted. The
worst case scenario for the Buckeyes is if they are
behind and Zwick has to take over due to injury –
that would be too much for the reserve to handle. Otherwise,
Zwick can manage the game with competence as long as
the Buckeyes establish the run.
Chris Leak,
Florida’s all-time leading passer in a number
of categories, shows more inconsistency than Smith.
Though he has faced a majority of secondaries that were
ranked in the upper echelons (two have been in the top
10 – No.3 LSU and No.5 Georgia), he makes good
decisions about 90% of the time. But that other 10%
has cost the Gators, most recently in the SEC title
game (his struggles in the third quarter allowed Arkansas
to take a 21-17 lead after Florida had them down 17-7).
Tressel has four guys up front who need little help
to put pressure on Leak, so in dropping six and seven
into coverage, the Buckeyes can reproduce the circumstance(s)
that messes Leak up the most – having to scramble
when everyone is well covered and then panicking and
forcing the ball. Now, this is not to say Leak always
fails when put in such a situation. He can often nail
a receiver deep when the play breaks down and improvising
begins. But OSU has to try and get Leak into a funk
and then capitalize. Leak only had multiple INTs in
two games during the season, so his consistency is a
major key for Florida to remain mistake-free and stay
in this game. Meyer
springs enough surprises in his spread approach so that
the Buckeyes will have a hard time knowing what will
occur from seeing which formations Florida lines up
in. But it could be those few times they guess right
that allow State to make the big defensive play and
possibly get a turnover that decides the game. Leak
has to refrain from forcing things and take the sack
or throw it away when in trouble for Florida to (have
a chance to) win. Noteworthy: Leak also only has one
300+ yard game (352 vs. UCF) but has more rushing TDs
(three) than Smith (one).
Then there
is the X-/Tebow-factor. This past year’s top dual-threat
QB prospect, it took little time for Meyer to find Tim
a place in his expansive schemes. Tebow reflects confidence
beyond his years when put in on third and fourth downs,
most often running for the needed yardage and more as
defenders are both run past and run over by the 6’3”
230lb true freshman. With deceptive speed, Tebow has
lost a mere nine yards in his 79 rushes, and his seven
TDs lead all Gator ball carriers. But just when foes
think he’ll run again, he has steadily passed
it to wide open receivers as LBs and safeties crowd
the box. Tebow is 21-of-32 for 357 yards and four TDs,
making reads like a vet in the eight games he has passed.
This heir-apparent has been the singular difference
in quite a few of the Gator’s closest calls (LSU,
Tennessee, and South Carolina). Tebow’s sporadic/poignant
insertions have messed opponents up all year, and you
can bet Meyer has not yet shown all the things that
his team can do with the youngster behind center.
Look for
Leak and Tebow to both be on the field at once sometime
in the game. Also expect to see Meyer utilize an unsuspecting
WR or RB as a hurler on an end around, reverse and/or
outside run. Another possible wrinkle could be lining
said RB/WR up behind center and sending Tebow and/or
Leak into the pattern. Tressel may have seven weeks
to prepare his guys for much of the Gator’s arsenal,
but Urban also has over a month to add plays that the
Buckeyes can’t possibly scout or expect. You at
home should expect the unexpected when the Gators line
up.
In comparing
Smith/Zwick to Leak/Tebow, the Buckeyes just have more
of a playmaker and less possible mistakes with their
Heisman winner. Smith may only get 150-200 aerial yards,
but in games this year where he has been held to such
pedestrian totals, he has still thrown 16 TDs and only
four INTs. That means that stopping his yardage production
doesn’t equal a guaranteed gator victory. Though
conventional compared to Florida’s spread approach,
Ohio State runs the ball well, making it tough to stop
their passes from stinging at just the right times.
Leak’s propensity to blunder at key times means
that unless he can play error-free ball all night, any
fumbles and/or INTs will equal either returns for scores
or eventual points by the OSU offense due to such. Ohio
State has allowed only ten points to be scored off of
their turnovers (all by Michigan), which means Florida
has their work cut out if they are to return the favor.
Florida is stacked defensively with athletes, so if
anyone besides Michigan can hurt the Buckeyes this way,
it will be the Gators. Still, all in all, the quarterback
advantage goes to Ohio State.
Running
Back – There are great differences
in the way these two teams run the ball. Ohio State
relies on two ball carriers to round out their conventional
ground approach. Florida likes to spread the ball amongst
QBs, RBs and WRs, and results have UF averaging a bit
more per carry (4.8) than OSU (4.7). But the top three
Gator RBs total together only 189 carries, hardly workhorses
at all compared to the Buckeye RBs, who have 334 carries
between the two of them. Florida runs out of their spread
formations, with plenty of fakes for end-arounds and
misdirection plays the Buckeyes will have to be ready
for with defenders who stay home and don’t get
caught out of position. Ohio State runs out of conventional
sets and challenges UF to stop them even when they telegraph
a handoff is coming.
The running
game in Gainesville quietly ranks 36th in the nation.
Florida’s DeShawn Wynn is a fifth-year senior
who has a bowling ball effect as he runs over as many
guys as he runs by. Soph Kestahn Moore is also a physical
back who can give as much as he takes. Svelte frosh
Mon Williams also contributes, giving the Gators a trio
of backs who can keep legs fresh all 60 minutes against
the bruising OSU front seven. The longest runs for each
are 26, 28, and 25 yards, respectively. These guys just
haven’t broken many big gainers and aren’t
likely to against Ohio State’s No.16 rush defense
that allows foes only 3.3 ypc. Florida has only seen
a few dominant run defenses, and their RBs haven’t
performed exemplary against any of them.
Antonio Pittman
has had two consecutive years of great results, and
the junior is the greatest Buckeye back since Maurice
Clarett in his infamous freshman campaign that took
OSU to the title in 2002-03. This is a back who can
put the team on his back. Pittman forcing UF to commit
eight in the box will be a major step towards victory.
Then there is Chris Wells. This true freshman has lived
up to the hype as the nation’s top RB prospect
with his 5.8 ypc. His hulking size punishes would-be
tacklers and his speed gets him around the corner for
easy yards. “Beanie” also consistently grinds
out enough yards to make defenses have to respect his
potential, or else. Together they provide OSU with the
18th-ranked rushing attack, and Florida’s sixth-ranked
run stoppers are expected to keep them somewhat in check.
Due to the pounding lead blocking of FB Stan White,
it will likely happen that Ohio State breaks a few big
gainers (longest runs of the year - 56 yards for Pittman
and 52 for Wells). Florida’s big, quick athletes
up front have to realize that conceding five yards is
OK so as not to over-rush and allow the Buckeye runners
to easily get into the secondary.
It is not
as though Ohio State has a huge advantage here in quality.
It is a volume thing that allows us to think their backs
are stronger as a unit. And this difference between
the two team’s approaches is due to no more than
the two different schemes each team uses as we’ve
mentioned above. The Gator WRs get multiple carries,
but they wouldn’t bolster this area when breaking
down just the RBs like we are. The Buckeye RBs are therefore
more valuable for their team, and they have proven that
they can keep opposing offenses off the field with steady
production. With Tim Tebow finishing second on the team
for rushing, it is often out of the Gator RBs’
hands as to how the running game will be utilized –
not a bad thing, just not a RB-reliant rushing attack
for Meyer’s bunch. Advantage Buckeye’s for
their capability to still get first downs in a cloud
of dust with three straight handoffs to their backs.
Receiver
– This
is another toughie due to both sides being stacked.
There are specific statistical areas that lean in favor
of Florida, namely the team averages per catch (13.5
yards per catch for UF, 12.7 for OSU) and having five
players with 20+ snarls compared to State only having
three. But most important in distinguishing between
their WR units is what we spoke of in the RB section
above – the UF WRs help to power the Gator running
game much more than OSU’s WRs contribute (besides
in downfield blocking) to their ground efforts.
Ohio State’s
group cannot be ignored for what they bring to the table
each week. They are a huge reason why Troy Smith won
his awards. Ted Ginn is a threat to break a big one
every down, and this year he has been used less as a
ball carrier and more as a conventional WR. The Cleveland
native often lines up in no-man’s land (between
where a slot/flanker back might be and the backfield)
and will get his share of touches somehow. Florida needs
to have done their homework to realize that of Ginn’s
25 carries from 2004-05, 10 of them were in the Buckeye’s
two bowl games. He has a rushing score in each of the
last two season-enders. Definitely look for him to be
the beneficiary of coach Tressel opening up the full
playbook. No.2 receiver Tony Gonzales has the team’s
top average with 14.8 ypc and will pick up YAC if not
played tightly by UF DBs. Sophomore Brian Robiskie cannot
be ignored, or he, too, will burn Florida. TE Rory Nicol
also could see poignant touches to help open up the
deep middle for Ginn & Co.
Florida senior
Dallas Baker has one more catch than Andre Caldwell
(56 to 55) and 326 more yards than his junior compliment.
Baker goes deep while Caldwell usually stays home underneath,
though Caldwell has a team-longest 66-yard reception
while Baker’s longest is only 33. Jemalle Cornelius
also sees ample deep curls and out patterns. But it
could be Meyer’s use of two freshmen – Jarred
Fayson and Percy Harvin – that will have OSU swiping
at air. Slash player Harvin (be warned Buckeyes –
he played QB in prep) has more runs than catches (36
carries for 406 yards and two TDs; 25 catches, 14.7
ypc and two TDs) and is third on the team in rushing,
while Fayson (listed as a WR) has seen his touches consist
of mostly ball-carrying duties (14 carries, 126 yards
with no yards lost; one catch for one yard). Caldwell
even has 18 carries and he has also launched a TD in
his only pass of the year. Florida WRs have a total
of 73 carries, compared to Ohio State’s snarlers
only compiling five so far in 2006. UF just relies more
on the multiple talents of their WRs more due to their
creativity, and therefore the Gator WRs are more valuable
and integral in their team’s offensive approach.
OSU
knows they have to be aware of all of the shenanigans
Meyer will pull in his three-, four- and five-WR sets,
so assignments and communication for the Buckeye back-seven
have to be crystal clear. Stopping Michigan and their
conventional 75th-ranked passing game proved rather
difficult for the Buckeyes. If Florida goes on to victory,
it will be because the five sophomores in Ohio State’s
back seven were exploited more by the UF WRs in the
spread (and its possibilities) than Florida’s
more experienced DBs and LBs were burned by State’s
passing game (six out of the seven UF starters are upperclassmen).
But Ohio State’s WRs might have a lower touch/yardage
totals just because the Buckeye running game clicks
so consistently well, making their contributions with
downfield blocking just as important. Stopping Florida’s
WRs in every facet will be a taller order, and that
gives the Gators an advantage here when forced to choose
between the two quality corps.
Offensive
Line – Both teams have cohesive
units with players that know each other well –
the Buckeye line has had the same five starters for
every 2006 game, while the Gators only had one game
where one of its regular starters was missing. To measure
the differences between these two OLs is finite, though
certain dimensions distinguish each. It comes down to
how their respective offenses utilize the units, for
Florida’s spread attack is less conventional than
Ohio State’s more basic sets.
Florida is
led by senior first-team all-SEC center Steve Rissler.
Second-team all-conference juniors Phil Trautwein and
Drew Miller protect the outside well, while Carlton
Medder and sophomore Jim Tartt work the intricacies
in the middle with Rissler. The line’s effectiveness
can seem sporadic with all of the misdirection and faking
going on in the spread, but these guys have come together
well in the offenses’ second year under Meyer’s
unique system. Florida often leaves their big five on
islands, with expectations that each can handle their
assignment one-on-one, and multiple assignments on one
play often occur. Inconsistencies are therefore found
in their results when up against better defenses loaded
with big, quick, determined athletes. The SEC is full
of teams like this, a substantial reason Meyer has found
it hard to dominate this conference like he did the
MAC and MWC.
The Buckeye
defense is much like the better SEC defenses in this
way and will have some success penetrating and disrupting.
Florida’s OL cannot allow this to happen for more
than one play here and there. Arkansas and Auburn showed
that consistently overloading/blitzing to one side can
be effective in managing the Gator offense, so Florida
will have to go deep early to keep OSU from loading
the box and/or inordinate blitzing.
Meyer cannot
expect his linemen to stop OSU’s quality DL and
LBs every time, so the risks have to be assessed initially
to then apply their findings later. Meyer would be prudent
in opening the playbook slowly, keeping his H-backs
and/or TEs in at first to gauge Ohio State’s formidable
front seven this way. Tressel will be forced to show
his hand, and then those lateral end-to-end plays can
be poignantly inserted for bigger gains later on. We
have always asserted that spreading teams out at the
top levels of I-A ball can wind up being futile as top-level
defenders are big and quick enough to compensate for
such, so staying home early on will be in UF’s
best interest.
Ohio State
makes it somewhat easier for their OL, allowing them
to concentrate on a north-south running approach and
basic drop-back and/or rollout passing by Smith. All-American
and Rimington finalist Doug Datish continues the high
level of tradition for Buckeye centers, a cornerstone
for the team’s consistent success over the years.
Fellow senior and all-Big Ten RG T.J. Downing is joined
on the inside by Steve Rehring, who is surprisingly
agile for his 329lb size (also can play LT effectively).
Super sophomore Alex Boone has been starting since last
year to protect Smith’s blindside, and all-conference
RT Kirk Barton should call the Horseshoe his own IHOP
for all the pancakes he has made there. You might as
well call FB Stan White a lineman – only eight
catches and where he lines up differentiate him from
the other five. Ohio State’s OL is able to show
more consistency due to the way the offense runs. They
pound straight ahead and force foes to play smash-mouth
ball. If Florida is unable to disrupt the Buckeye OL,
it will be a long night in the desert. But Florida has
an athletic, hard-hitting front seven that has seen
some tough OLs this season. If any foe is prepared to
finally stop OSU it’s Florida.
Basic stats
to compare the two lines - Ohio State has allowed less
sacks (14) than Florida (22); both teams average about
4.8 ypc; Florida’s line averages about 310lbs;
Ohio State’s averages 315lbs. One big difference
between the two is how long each unit has been together
– Florida returned only two starters this campaign
while Ohio State returned four. It all adds up to a
marginal advantage for OSU up front.
But if there
is an area that is misrepresented due to differing levels
of competition, it is here. As stated in the QB breakdown,
Ohio State played against middle of the road (at best)
defenses that didn’t truly test its line. Florida
did a respectable job against the cream of the stingy
SEC, and they are used to being in dog fights. The Buckeyes
DL will give them one, but Ohio State has to realize
going into the game that can’t expect to run rampant
over the Gator’s like they have against most other
foes. Florida probably needs a low scoring game to come
out ahead, so watch to see if OSU can rule the matchups
up front and put 30 or more on the Gators – a
sure sign they likely win. Ostensibly, the two trench
wars will be major factors in determining who goes home
champs.
Defensive
Line –
Now let’s look at the flip side of the battles
up front. These are two nasty groups, each senior laden
with good depth all around. Florida’s 6th in the
nation for run stopping while Ohio State ranks 10th
for both sacks and TFLs (tackles for loss). This area
is too close to say one team’s DL is better than
the other, and as we’ve stated in the offensive
line section, the team that can effectively squelch
the other’s DL will likely come out ahead in the
end.
Florida has
seen consistency coming off of the outside as hulking
Ray McDonald and Jarvis Moss have helped tame many of
the best SEC running games. Rush end Moss is fourth
on the team in tackles (54), second in sacks (5.5) and
first in forced fumbles (3). But Moss is best remembered
for his two big kick blocks against South Carolina that
won it for UF 17-16. McDonald, first-team all-SEC, is
immovable from his lane, forcing off-tackle runs to
bounce wide outside so the quick LBs can clean up from
there. Second-team all-SEC soph Derrick Harvey has proven
his worth, lining up anywhere on the line and producing
team bests in both TFLs (10), sacks (8) and fumble recoveries
(2). Senior Joel Cohen stacks up the inside and has
been double-teamed a good part of the year to free up
fellow senior tackles Marcus Thomas and Steven Harris.
The tackles are a huge reason the Gators allow 2.8 ypc,
74 ypg and only seven total ground scores all season.
Ohio State’s
OL did well against the tougher DLs they saw, but none
of their foes came from the Gator’s defensive-minded
conference. Unlike Michigan and Texas, this group of
Gator bigmen has seen top OLs all year and conquered
all (but Auburn). The best DL OSU will face all year
has to keep doing its job decisively for UF to have
any chance.
State’s
defensive line is a huge reason they have dominated
most opponents. The biggest surprise has easily been
the emergence of all-Big Ten DE Vernon Gholston. Only
a sophomore, this ultra-quick rush end is the line’s
top tackler (44), and he has a team-high in TFLs (14)
as well as the second most sacks (7.5). Many teams tried
more to stop heralded senior Jay Richardson, and the
double-teams he often garnered gave way to big stops
by others. Alex Barrow and Lawrence Wilson (two FFs)
rotate in to keep the Buckeye legs on the outside fresh,
and this will be key for OSU to disrupt the lateral
plays Florida so often runs late in the game. All-American
Quinn Pitcock solidified future Sunday employment by
leading the team in sacks (8) from his tackle slot.
This guy is in need of two OLmen to tame him on most
plays. Fellow senior David Patterson has also clogged
the middle consistently – the true senior has
been an invaluable part of the DL his entire career
in Columbus.
The cohesive
play of the Buckeye line is the main reason that the
back seven hasn’t skipped a beat, even with six
new starters. Respectably ranked at 16th as run stoppers,
OSU’s DL has much to study against Florida’s
spread attack. There are just so many ways that UF can
distract opponents come snap time, the Buckeyes have
to know their assignments and lanes or coach Meyer will
eventually exploit any over-pursuing bigmen. Tressel
really hasn’t seen anything like what UF’s
offense poses, so expect a conservative approach and
then adjustments all night as Meyer pulls trick after
trick out of the team’s collective wazoo.
The OSU DL
has started pretty much the same front four all of 2006.
Depending on who is double-teamed, the others have to
react and help cover each other’s territory to
keep UF’s efficiency down. A breakdown by the
Buckeye DL – like we saw in their last game against
Michigan, which ran the rock at a 4.3 ypc clip –
will keep the wily Gators on the field and their offense
on the bench. Watch for Tebow to be used more as a distraction
than he is as a weapon, baiting OSU to show their DL
schemes so Meyer can capitalize. If this Buckeye DL
can do the job against Tebow and UF on its trickier
plays, expect to see OSU holding up the BCS trophy by
the end.
Two solid
lines that are too close to differentiate in overall
quality. The Buckeyes allow 3.3 ypc, .07 more than the
Gators, but OSU has 15 more TFLs and eight more sacks
than UF. There may be no advantage between the two DLs
heading into the game, but the winner will be able to
point to their superiority in this area and how it was
a major key to victory.
Linebackers
– We see here two teams with defensive results
that were well balanced, a sure sign of good linebacking
corps. The differences seem to be in experience and
results against major competitors.
No one can
argue that fellow sophomores James Laurinaitis and Marcus
Freeman are about as good a tandem as found anywhere
in all of I-A. Ohio State was expecting modest results
since all three of last year’s starting LBs left.
Laurinaitis then won this year’s Nagurski Award
(top defensive player), leading the team in both tackles
(100), INTs (five) and forced fumbles (three). Freeman
offers the same combination of size and speed; though,
he seems more comfortable in coverage. These two have
made sure that any drop-off has been minimal, as has
senior Antonio Smith, who has been regularly shifted
from his starting spot at CB to weakside LB. Smith’s
quickness has provided 10 TFLs, but his size allows
linemen to overpower him one-on-one. Senior John Kerr,
originally slated for the WLB slot, has underperformed
in his showings. Freshman Ross Homan has been a surprise,
but his inexperience will show against the spread. Juniors
Curtis Terry and Larry Grant also garner reps but have
not shown the superior polish needed to make the OSU
middlemen shine like last year’s senior-laden
group.
Florida has
three steady performers in their corps, led by senior
Earl Everett and junior Brandon Siler. These guys come
up big at the most important times – little gets
by them when the game is on the line. Senior Brian Crum
has stepped into his starting role with effectiveness,
and freshman backups Ryan Stamper, Brandon Spikes and
Dustin Doe have played beyond their years. It has all
come together here for a unit that uses athleticism
and toughness against any type of offense they’ve
faced.
It is at
the tougher times that we judge these LB performances,
not against those lesser foes which they should be beating
up. Capable of making the big plays, inconsistency has
just plagued much of the Buckeye reserve cache at LB
in bigger games. None of the backups had key plays against
Illinois and Michigan, State’s two toughest games
this season. Breakdowns in underneath coverage against
the Wolverines seemingly had OSU constantly chasing
behind UM’s ball carriers, and you know with the
variables UF is likely to throw at them, this is a bad
sign. In contrast, Florida has faced the meat of the
SEC and shown that their corps can hold up under such
stringent circumstances. The Gators often bend but rarely
break with the game on the line. Numbers comparing the
two units may favor OSU overall, but with only five
teams in the Big Ten over .500 and the Buckeyes missing
Purdue and Wisconsin (two of those five) on their ’06
résumé, OSU’s two late season struggles
prove their LB corps can falter when needed most. It
basically comes down to experience and subsequent results
in big games. UF has faced only three teams with losing
records. Their LBs have arguably been a major reason
they have been able to stay one step ahead of the rest
of the SEC. They have been tested in close games and
proven worthy. OSU cannot hang their hats on the game
in Austin with then-No.2 Texas sporting a freshman QB,
and against Michigan junior Chad Henne, we saw what
a balanced offense led by an experienced QB can achieve
against the Buckeyes. UF has such an offense, too, and
will have plenty of tricks coming out of the spread
to exploit the OSU LBs. The Buckeyes may have success
against UF, but each yard will be earned the hard way
and any chinks in the Gator’s hide won’t
likely be found at LB.
Secondary
– Just like the linebackers, the Florida secondary
seems to boast a stronger unit due only to experience
in big games. The talent in Ohio State’s DBs is
nothing to scoff at. But with only one returning starter
from ‘05, the OSU secondary was easily exploited
by their best opponent, Michigan. Beating up on the
soft Big Ten schedule the Buckeyes faced doesn’t
numerically impress like it might seem (top passing
offense faced was Iowa’s 29th-ranked unit), so
OSU will have to hold UF’s No.23 passing offense
for 60 minutes before anyone will believe they definitely
have the stuff to stop a worthy passing opponent. UF’s
starting four really has shown excellent cohesion and
seems a hand better.
OSU sophomore
Malcolm Jenkins has proven he deserved his status as
a shutdown corner from last year’s freshman campaign.
He is also a sure tackler on outside runs, an important
trait to have against UF. Antonio Smith has overseen
the emergence of frosh Donald Washington to take his
place so Smith can play WLB and nickel-back, though
Smith did start four games at CB and lines up all over.
Senior Brandon Mitchell has emerged as a steady starter
at strong safety, and free safety Jamario O’Neal
is like the rest – he is as good in run support
as he is in coverage. There are many good reserves (Russell,
Amos) that rotate in early and often, keeping the Buckeye
secondary fresh throughout the entire game.
Junior safeties
Reggie Nelson and Tony Joiner are the backbone of the
Gator’s No.6 pass efficiency defense. But they
couldn’t do it without Florida’s two lockdown
specialists on the outside. Reggie Lewis has started
every game at corner, but it is the emergence of transfer
Ryan Smith that has made this crew come together. Smith
is tied for third in the nation with his eight INTs
as well as first on the team with 15 passes defended
and fifth with 52 tackles. Smith and Nelson form the
top DB pair in the nation with 14 INTs combined. This
starting four has not changed all year, giving them
a tight knit unit that has seen the No.9 (Kentucky)
and the No.13 (Tennessee) passing offenses and thwarted
both for victories.
Many will
point to how UF allows 15 more yards per game through
the air than OSU, but this is an unfair comparison.
Florida has dealt with 444 opponent’s passes while
Ohio State has only seen 378. That’s nearly 18%
more, which means using yardage totals doesn’t
comparably size up which is better. They both give up
5.7 yards per pass attempt. The Gators have the sixth-best
pass efficiency D compared to the Buckeye’s No.8
ranking. As stated above, it is a close call differentiating
between these two secondaries. UF just has a better
starting four whom know each other that much more. Florida
will surely have its hands full against Troy Smith,
but Smith has not seen a pass defense this good yet.
Chris Leak is subtly effective, and the Meyer’s
spread will test OSU like it hasn’t been tested
yet. Advantage Florida…
Punting
– Both clubs have strong punting games that have
proven advantageous in getting each this far. In breaking
down just the actual punting itself, marginally stronger
statistical results favor Florida, though Ohio State
is right there and could easily win the punting variable
come January 8th.
Buckeye booter
A.J. Trapasso has only had to launch 43 punts, and 15
of those have come down inside opponent’s 20 yard
line. The sophomore has forced eight fair catches, averages
41 yards per try and has controlled his punts well enough
so that only 11 have been returned. Trapasso’s
size means he is a worthy tackler if need be, but his
coverage units have kept that from being necessary.
With none of his attempts blocked, he has a proven motion
which should maintain his flawless results.
Gator senior
Eric Wilbur has a 42.2 ypp average in his 49 tries –
also less than four punts per game. His big leg has
landed 22 inside the opponent’s 20 and has forced
12 fair catches. Wilbur kicks high enough so that the
Gator tacklers are already there. His longest try was
64 yards, but he rarely outkicks his coverage.
Both teams
have return specialists who will demand that these punters
have flawless efforts all game, or else. Florida gets
the slight nod here due to Wilbur’s statistical
edge and his senior status. Wilbur has been punting
almost perfectly for four years now with solid results,
though Trapasso has shown consistency in both of his
campaigns. Field position battles with the game close
would prove to be a major pivot for who wins. Don’t
be caught getting something out of the fridge because
you think punting on fourth downs isn’t important.
Kick/Punt
Coverage –
Whereas the kick coverages for these two titans is comparable
– UF allows 18 per kick return; OSU holds foes
to 18.1 – it is in the punt coverage that we see
separation between them. The Buckeyes have allowed an
average of 8.3 yards in their opponent’s 11 punt
returns while the Gators have only given up 3.2 yards
in 18 PRs. The longest punt return UF has given up was
15 yards; OSU has allowed a 34 yarder. Usually a sign
of defensive depth and team speed (of which each have
plenty), Florida just boasts enough of an advantage
on punt coverage to give them a nod here. These are
two tough-as-nails crews that have much to prove. Either
team could find the winning edge due to a heads-up play
via their foe’s mistake in handling a kickoff
and/or punt, so don’t underestimate how important
this dimension could be when all is said and done.
Kicking
– We have a feeling that Ohio State’s decided
advantage in this area might be the difference. The
Buckeyes have two guys who can hit from 50+ at will,
while UF kicker Chris Hetland is having a disastrous
year in which his longest field goal is 33 yards. Hetland
is 4-for-13 after dotting the Groza Award watch list
at the start of the season. Coach Meyer has to be inside
the red zone before he can feel confident pulling the
trigger with Hetland. Coach Tressel need only break
the 40 yard line before trying for three. The Buckeye
regular is RS freshman Aaron Pettrey, but Ryan Pretorius
is 1-for-2, both of his tries coming from 50+. Pettrey
is 5-for-7 from 40+ and 8-for-11 on the year. It just
looks bad for Florida if/when the whole game hinges
on the kicking game. Having to get three points late
for the win in a really close game isn’t a situation
the Gators can afford to be in. This important detail
favoring Ohio State just may be that difference late
in a comeback win.
Another dimension
of the kicking game that swings an advantage back to
Florida is how well they have broken through for huge
kick blocks (total of seven). Jarvis Moss used all of
his 6’6 frame to block two South Carolina kicks
(one FGA and one XPA), and fellow DE Ray McDonald also
blocked a FGA to secure the Gator’s 17-16 win
in the Spurrier Bowl. But inversely, Florida has also
allowed four kicks to be blocked. Against Auburn, in
the lone Gator loss, UF blew a 17-8 lead, notably on
a botched snap and subsequent blocked punt attempt that
then put the Tigers up 18-17 on Florida’s first
possession of the third quarter. Ohio State has only
two blocked kicks, but also has only allowed two of
theirs to be blocked. This may just be number crunching,
but we all know the huge pivots that come via altered
kick/punt attempts, so we had to mention it here, seemingly
the most appropriate place.
Returns
– Though pretty close in the punt return department,
Ohio State has an advantage in kickoff returns, and
therefore overall, due to Ted Ginn, Jr. The junior speedster
has one return TD this year and seven in his career,
and is a breakaway threat every time he touches the
rock. The Gators counter with true freshman Brandon
James. The St. Augustine native also fills both return
roles, but is not up to the expected snuff as a kick
returner (17.5 ypr with a long of 38). Ginn is only
earning 20.4 per kick return with a long of 37, but
those three extra yards on his average are the separation
between these two teams for returns. What seems like
a minor area is often – like other subtle dimensions
– the difference in a close game. Anthony Gonzalez
could touch the ball in some returning capacity for
OSU, and his deceptive speed cannot be something UF
ignores if Ginn is out. Likewise, Gator Reggie Nelson
is (actually more) likely to see some return duties.
Freshman Jarred Fayson is another Gator burner who could
make a name for himself rather quickly here if not treated
with the respect his explosive speed is due. Sometimes
in post-season classics like this, it is someone we
never expect who is a game breaker. As we warned prior,
don’t get caught ignoring changes of possession,
or you might suddenly realize the score has changed
and you missed it.
The other
statistical advantage Ohio State has is in INT returns.
This is a highly dubious fact, for numbers do not mean
much when two speedy, focused back sevens like these
are compared. Still, OSU has averaged 16+ per INT return,
and three of their 21 have been for scores. UF has 20
INTs with a 7.5 average per return and only one for
a score. And though Florida has allowed foes only 8.4
yards and no scores on their INT returns, Ohio State
has given up no yards in Smith’s paltry five picks.
Sure, UF could have three INTs for TDs and OSU could
get none, so do not think these past numbers carry much
weight. The slate is wiped clean and little can be predicted
by past INT results. Just more fodder to help confuse
you in this series of comparisons.
Depth/Backups
– This
is an area Florida seems to go across the board –
position by position and unit by unit – with decisive
advantages in most. These advantages are seen through
on-field experience and then results, not in evaluations
of talent arbitrarily. Ohio State’s reserves have
just as much potential and physical talent, but UF has
just gotten more out of their second- and third-teamers.
We can get
specific. Take the backup QBs – in ’06,
Tebow has 79 carries and 32 pass attempts compared to
Zwick’s two carries and 23 passes. But this is
offset by career numbers – Zwick has extensive
starting experience while true frosh Tebow would be
unpredictable if thrust into an every-down role. How
would you compare such results? It can be daunting.
More comparable
would be comparing given units and how many players
have reached certain statistical levels. Both teams
have three TBs with over 100 yards; OSU has six players
with over 140 receiving yards while UF has five with
300+. Florida has two tight ends who can go deep over
the middle while Ohio State has only Rory Nicol.
Both teams
have 19 defensemen with more than 10 tackles. But Florida’s
D only has four freshmen listed in backup roles, whereas
OSU lists five. That one’s pretty close given
the strong stopping results both clubs have produced.
But with
Florida much more battle tested having played the cream
of the SEC crop and State playing in a conference where
the overall 2006 record was a combined 77-58 and only
five teams had winning records, you can decipher where
we likely land in this category. We just have to give
the overall depth advantage to Florida for having more
true experience in their two- and three-deep player
charts thanks to excellent recruiting in the sunshine
state. Ohio State comparatively holds up for offensive
depth to the Gators, but their defense is just too young
and green overall to believe it can easily handle an
unpredictable opponent like Florida that spreads the
field so well/often. Florida can more easily be seen
handling OSU’s offense for 60 minutes due to how
deep their size-speed combos go.
Strength
of Schedule (SOS) – There are
many ways to break this down, but we will keep it to
two basic areas. Before the season started, NationalChamps.net
broke down the strength of schedule as we saw it. We
thought Florida had the sixth toughest schedule based
on last year’s record and Ohio State was 22nd.
Now the regular season has played out and the aggregate
totals of each team’s foes combined records sees
the Buckeyes foes with a 73-71 record and Gator opponents
at 91-66. That’s 51% to 58% in comparing foe’s
winning percentages. The Gator’s schedule is now
confirmed as having been the nation’s toughest.
This is something that gives Florida an edge and we
have been alluding to it in many areas.
The main
difference will be seen in defenses. Sure, OSU beat
up on most of their opponents, but against the best
teams they faced, they showed signs of beat-ability.
Then-No.2 (now No.18) Texas gashed State for 326 total
yards. Then-No.2 Michigan, with only the 74th rated
passing game, threw for 267 yards against the Buckeyes.
Bowling Green, 4-8 and ranked 56th in total offense,
gained 339 yards October 7th in Columbus. All one team
has to do is put together a total game to beat Ohio
State, and Florida has done it to top opponents all
year. Ohio State may have faced No.2 twice (though neither
was a true No.2 team as we can now see), but otherwise
they have only faced (then-No.13 and now 6-7) Iowa,
measly pickins’ compared to Florida’s slate.
The Buckeyes are young on D, and if the season ender
against UM didn’t expose their flaws to you, the
title game against Florida will.
Florida’s
résumé reads like a who’s who of
solid, winning programs: won opening day against CUSA-runner-up
and GMAC Bowl-bound Southern Miss (8-5); won 21-20 at
Knoxville against then-No.13 Tennessee; beat Music City
Bowl champions Kentucky 26-7, Alabama 28-13, and No.4
(then-No.9) LSU 23-10 - all at home in three consecutive
weeks; beat both then-No.25 Georgia and FSU by the same
score of 21-14 on the road; surged for the 38-28 win
against then-No.8 Arkansas for the SEC crown. Only a
trip to Auburn blemishes the Gator’s results,
and at 12-1 coming out of the SEC, anyone who thinks
Ohio State is more than just another day at the office
for UF is underestimating how good Florida is. They’ve
played only three teams with losing records this year
while OSU has played five. The Buckeyes have only faced
one team with a winning record – Michigan –
since September. Florida is in prime position to grind
out a tight contest (won five games by a TD or less,
two by one point) due to experience in them, but betting
against Troy Smith in a close game is a hard argument
to make, regardless.
Intangibles
– Whereas Florida may have an advantage due to
their experience against a tougher schedule, Ohio State
has an advantage due to their coaching experience in
championship games. For all of Urban Meyer’s innovations,
he has never (before now) reached the top game and doesn’t
know the pressures involved with everything that goes
along with reaching it. Jim Tressel does. Tressel has
even gone to the championship game at two levels (six
times at I-AA, won four titles; once at I-A, won title
in 2002-03). This one factor alone is the first thing
that will give Ohio State an edge.
Even as a
team, this OSU squad is used to winning. They bring
the nation’s current longest win streak (19) with
them. They’ve garnered the No.1 spot now since
the preseason polls, and the Buckeyes are an impressive
63-8-1 all-time when top ranked. But in six previous
seasons entering the campaign atop the polls, they have
never ended up as No.1 in the final tally. Moreover,
they are 4-0 in No.1 vs. No.2 games, including 2-0 this
year with Florida making their third No.2 opponent for
the season. No team has ever been in even two No.1-No.2
matchups in one season, let alone three! State is 4-0
in past BCS appearances, including 3-0 under Tressel,
but they are 18-19 all-time in bowls. Their four BCS
wins are the most for any team, though USC gained their
fourth in a 32-18 romp over Michigan in last Monday’s
Rose Bowl.
Florida won
the first Bowl Alliance championship in 1996, the precursor
to the present BCS system. That is the school’s
lone national title. UF has played in three BCS bowls
(2-1), but hasn’t been part of this elite postseason
grouping since 2002 (56-23 Orange Bowl win over Maryland).
Meyer was there in 2004 (35-7 Fiesta Bowl win) with
Utah when they finished undefeated, his only trip to
the BCS (so he is 1-0). Meyer is looking for his fourth
bowl win in as many years/tries – only Boston
College’s Tom O’Brien (six) and Jim Tressel
(four) have better streaks running. Meyer has outscored
foes 83-38 in his three straight wins. Meyer’s
teams are 20-2 all-time when given more than a week
to prepare for a game. Florida has now been to 16 consecutive
bowls to end their season, and this is their 13th January
bowl game in the last 14 years. UF is 15-18 all-time
in bowls but is 5-3 against Big Ten opponents. But UF
is only 2-6 all-time when facing the top ranked team
(1-1 when they were No.2 going in). Florida now has
its highest ranking for the year, and being anointed
to No.2 at such a late juncture can swing either way,
depending upon who is breaking it down. Suffice to say,
being in the limelight is new to Urban Meyer’s
guys, and only this game will tell if they handled it
well or not. The
trends over the eight BCS title games reveal some interesting
facts. No.1 beat No.2 the first four times (1999-2002),
but No.2 has won three of the last four title matchups.
Four of the eight have been decided by a TD or less,
including last year’s 41-38 Texas win over USC.
OSU won the only overtime game, a 31-24 double-OT classic
against another Florida team – Miami - out there
in…you guessed it, Tucson. Meyer tries to become
the seventh head coach to win a national title in his
first or second year at a given school. The last coach
to achieve this feat? Jim Tressel.
The Gators
are the sixth team to reach the title game with one
loss, and (as already stated) they faced five top 25
defenses to get here (OSU will make six). Nebraska (2001)
had faced the most (four) top 25 defenses out of those
previous five one-loss qualifiers. But to tell you just
how daunting the Gator’s slate has been in 2006,
consider this - USC and Texas faced a combined total
of only three top 25 defenses last year, and USC and
Oklahoma faced a combined total of four in ’04.
In a related
area, UF has reeled off 74 offensive plays of 20-or-more
yards in ’06 while OSU has only produced 55. But
the Buckeyes have been in control of most of their games
(won first halves 244-57) while UF has thrived on closer
tilts that require struggle (93-58 for aggregate first
half points). Both teams have the ability to be slow
and methodical offensively, but either can pounce at
any moment and score points lightning quick for a spurt.
Holding each other to less big plays seems like a viable
path to winning, but as long as the ball keeps moving
for each, big plays won’t be as big of a factor.
Keeping the opposing offense off the field and tiring
down the other’s defense then becomes the tact,
and Florida’s depth on that side of the ball would
then pay dividends. Ohio State couldn’t stop Michigan
late (15 fourth quarter points), and with all of Florida’s
variables in the spread, a UF defensive stand in the
last stanza will be another difference if they go on
to win.
One final
funny fact is that no team has ever simultaneously held
the national crown in both men’s basketball and
football. Most of us remember how Florida quietly scaled
the brackets for their first roundball title just nine
months ago, so taking the BCS title home would make
the Gators the first to do this. But if OSU wins, look
out for the Buckeye’s on the hard court –
their (currently) No.6 squad could easily make them
the first to do this come early April.
It all adds
up to lots of number crunching and few conclusive ends.
But when all the factoids and strategies are considered,
Ohio State can rely on their coach and the innate traits
of Troy Smith to get to the No.1 spot in the final polls.
Smith has won big games his entire career and can carry
his team and create momentum to get by any foe. If Florida
does win it, it will be via a group effort, a savvy
coach and some poignant breaks, for that is how they’ve
been doing it all year against tougher foes than OSU
has seen.
The
Final Prognosis – Who will win
this one? How will it play out? Well, whereas some big
games are rather transparent before they are played
(like last year’s Texas win over USC – we
all knew it would be a close shootout, and we at NationalChamps.net
knew Texas and ‘X’ factor Vince Young would
put the Longhorns over the top), this one has way too
many possible outcomes (the same way Ohio State’s
2003 Fiesta Bowl title game against Miami did) to say
how it will all sort out. But we can break a few of
the scenarios down.
One scenario
is a low scoring affair, a defensive struggle that sees
the first team to reach 20 points the victor. In this
type of game, we thing Florida has the advantage due
to how many of these they have been in this season.
The Gators scored 28 points or less in nine games, winning
eight. Foes only broke through the 20 point barrier
three times on UF’s D, so realize that Florida
has the stopping power to stifle even a juggernaut offense
like the Buckeyes. Three teams held OSU to under 30
points, and though none came out ahead, Illinois’
17-10 loss showed all that this was the most viable
way to beat the Buckeyes. But this doesn’t mean
much if Troy Smith can have one good drive late in the
game when it is needed most. Also factor in the two
kicking games (OSU’s is tops while UF’s
is struggling outside of 30 yards) and you may realize
that Ohio State could still surge ahead right at the
end, even if it is tight and low scoring. Florida needs
to be ahead two scores late in the fourth quarter to
be assured victory, and that is not so unrealistic for
an Urban Meyer squad to achieve. Florida has a 60% chance
of winning if both teams wind up scoring under 20 points.
Another breakdown
sees a higher scoring affair where the wills of both
offenses will eventually supercede quality defensive
showings. This one is within 10 points all night as
the team ahead at the half may have only 17. But then
the locker room adjustments for the last 30 minutes
mean more offensive success and that the winner is the
first team to 40. Look for OSU to run the ball well
if this occurs and for Florida to utilize a defensive
and/or special teams score to try and keep pace. But
just like how the Michigan game played out, Florida
is likely a score or two behind most of the way, and
State stays just far enough out of reach to have the
game in hand by midway through the fourth quarter. If
the points are coming quickly, banking on Leak/Tebow
to score at the same rate as Smith becomes a tall order.
Huge comebacks are not in this year’s bag for
the Gators. OK, so they were down 17-7 to Tennessee
late in the third quarter before winning 21-20 and trailing
16-10 halfway through the fourth before taking it from
South Carolina 17-16…but, noting the lower point
totals, both of those were won as much due to defensive
efforts as they were via offensive heroics. Sure, UF
has it in them to utilize the spread for baiting defenses
all game long one way only to then throw in a couple
of well-rehearsed trick plays for optimum results late.
But even more likely is OSU, with proven success on
offense, continuing to plow ahead well into the fourth
quarter and outscoring/out-dueling UF in this type of
game. Ohio State, with Troy Smith’s knack for
winning, has what Texas had last year in Vince Young
– that extra ability on reserve which can carry
them at critical times. Florida can rely on Leak to
pull it out of his wazoo, too, but in a tit-for-tat
scoring affair, look for Smith to have the edge here.
Ohio State wins a higher scoring result (where both
teams go over 30 points) 70% of the time.
But what
is most likely to happen is some scenario that has both
teams hovering around 20-25 points by the end, and it
comes down to one drive and/or kick to win it. This
scenario has to favor Ohio State due to their edge at
QB and their kicking game. Florida wins this kind of
game with some kind of huge defensive play late to stop
Smith. The Gators could win due to a well-earned score
that puts them ahead in the last moments, but it will
most likely then be a TD that does the trick.
Enough of
the possible sequences…how will it actually go
down? Well, we will go out on a limb and say that Florida
smacks the Buckeyes in the mouth right off and takes
an early lead. It will be within 6-9 points by halftime,
and OSU then comes out of the locker room attacking
and scoring on their first few third quarter drives
to take the lead. UF then adjusts and scores early in
the fourth to tie it or take the lead back. But
Smith, Tressel and the kicking game carry the Buckeyes
to eventual victory in a 27-23 final. State
wins this game 60 out of a hundred times, which means
Florida, too, has a pretty good chance of aligning the
stars for an eventual win.
Just remember,
anything goes in this title game. We suggest you either
put the kids to bed early or let them stay up to see
the entire game as college football history waits for
no one (well, ESPN Classic has changed that, huh). Still,
stick and stay to make sure you catch every play - bathroom
breaks, trips to the fridge, calls from friends and
other distractions cannot be entertained, or you will
miss major events that determine the outcome of this
fabulous matchup.
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