2005 PRESEASON STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

By Brad Edwards, Special to ESPN.com
Using the average team rankings between the preseason coaches poll and the major preview magazines along with the exclusive 2003 schedule strength ratings from NationalChamps.net, ESPN.com released an unofficial version of what they called the Preseason BCS rankings. NationalChamps.net proudly presents the 2005 version.

BONUS: Who plays the nation's toughest non-conference schedule. Click HERE to find out.
Rank
Team
Pts.
1. Notre Dame .819
2. Arkansas .806
3. Florida .696
4. Vanderbilt .677
5. Alabama .671
6. Ohio State .660
7. Oklahoma State .658
8. UCLA .651
9. Northwestern .648
10. Arizona .646
11. Baylor .638
12. North Carolina .637
13. Mississippi .632
14. Texas A&M .629
15. Kentucky .624
16. Georgia Tech .619
17. Mississippi State .610
18. South Carolina .609
19. Arizona State .602
20. Indiana .598
21. Kansas .595
22. Georgia .588
23. Minnesota .578
24. Texas .575
25. Colorado .570
26. Texas Tech .565
27. Oregon .556
28. Louisiana State .528
29. Stanford .525
30. Michigan State .524
31. Tennessee .523
32. Washington .518
33. Iowa .517
34. Illinois .515
35. Wisconsin .512
36. Washington State .511
37. Duke .500
38. Hawai'i .499
39. Virginia .490
40. Oklahoma .482
41. Penn State .477
42. Fresno State .456
43. Auburn .444
43. Miami FL .444
45. Clemson .439
46. Temple .438
47. Kansas State .434
48. Florida State .419
49. Michigan .414
50. Maryland .410
51. Oregon State .406
52. Missouri .402
53. Ball State .400
54. Nebraska .390
55. North Carolina State .389
56. Syracuse .381
57. South Florida .377
58. Wake Forest .375
59. Boston College .372
60. California .368
61. New Mexico State .353
62. Virginia Tech .341
63. Southern California .331
64. Louisiana Tech .328
65. Ohio .327
66. Iowa State .321
66. West Virginia .321
68. TCU .309
69. Rice .308
70. San Diego State .306
71. Utah State .301
72. Boise State .290
73. Purdue .286
74. Louisiana-Lafayette .283
75. Tulsa .282
76. Cincinnati .272
77. North Texas .260
78. Eastern Michigan .258
79. Northern Illinois .254
80. Colorado State .253
81. UAB .247
82. Memphis .243
83. Connecticut .239
84. San Jose State .226
85. Miami OH .224
86. Idaho .222
86. Florida Atlantic .222
88. Wyoming .221
89. Bowling Green .219
90. Nevada .218
91. Rutgers .204
92. Western Michigan .191
92. Brigham Young .191
94. Akron .189
95. Louisiana-Monroe .188
96. Marshall .184
97. Pittsburgh .167
98. Toledo .166
99. Buffalo .153
100. New Mexico .149
101. Air Force .144
102. Louisville .134
102. UNLV .134
104. Central Michigan .129
105. Army .121
106. SMU .119
107. Utah .103
108. Kent State .097
109. Florida International .085
110. Southern Miss .082
111. Middle Tennessee .081
112. Arkansas State .065
113. East Carolina .061
113. Navy .061
115. UCF .054
116. Houston .045
117. Troy .044
118. Tulane .041
119. UTEP .030

People continue to ask what it will take for Notre Dame to get back to the glory years. There has been talk, even amongst the Irish front office, of lessening the schedule. A plan has been put into place to gradually maneuver towards a lighter load. 2005 is exempt from that process as schedules are made years in advance. The Irish will do battle versus THREE of the Top FOUR teams currently listed in the just released AP Top 25 Poll (No. 1 USC, No. 3 Tennessee, No. 4 Michigan).

The argument "this is nothing new" when compared to decades of national title hunts for the Irish holds some water. However, scholarship reductions and parity have morphed today's game such that Notre Dame cannot stack its three-deep with guys who are good enough to start somewhere else. While new head coach Charlie Weis and his offensive mind have been handed an offense cocked for “hunting” the big game, his defense has been decimated…which has been the biggest issue in South Bend the last 10 years. No need to wish Charlie the best of luck, it won't be enough.

 

Arkansas took our No. 1 position in this NationalChamps.net Strength of Schedule department just one year ago. So, to no surprise, they still rank near the top. Playing in the SEC is usually enough, but now the decision-makers in Fayetteville have gone out and scheduled a road trip to Los Angeles - the Hogs battle the top rated USC Trojans. Are they Nutts? Maybe not as much as one would think. That game has nothing to do with conference standings and Arkansas has no shot at seeing USC in a Rose Bowl national title game. Take the money/exposure and run, even without Matt Jones behind center.

 

Speaking of the SEC...other than Notre Dame, the rest of our Top 5 Strength of Schedule list is loaded with SEC teams. Before an argument commences about the SEC playing weak non-conference foes, take a look at our out-of-conference opponent list. The SEC is ranked second toughest out of all the BCS conferences.

 

2005 AP Preseason Poll
1. Southern California (63)
2. Texas (24)
3. Tennessee (31)
4. Michigan (49)
5. Louisiana State (28)
6. Ohio State (6)
7. Oklahoma (40)
8. Virginia Tech (62)
9. Miami FL (43)
10. Florida (3)
11. Iowa (33)
12. Louisville (102)
13. Georgia (22)
14. Florida State (48)
15. Purdue (73)

 

Conf USA had no choice but to expand. With heavy hitters Louisville, Cincinnati, South Florida and TCU jumping ship, the new seven additions enter the league with a combined 2004 record of 26-54. Only Marshall and UTEP garnished more then three wins last fall. Ergo, more than half of the newly formed conference rank below 100th, rivaling the lowly Sun Belt.

 

Using our sliding scale point formula, the SEC is still king, followed by the Big XII. The surprise came from the ACC, ranking only ahead of the Big East in terms of the BCS big boys. While the ACC likely represents the most parity from top to bottom, they are still void of anyone resembling a Top 7 team. These issues are a big reason why no one from the ACC will be playing in Pasadena come January 4, according to our calculations.
SEC .734
Big XII .646
Big Ten .634
Pac Ten .565
ACC .540
Big East .283
WAC .248
Mountain West .184
MAC .133
Conference USA .050
Sun Belt .031

 

Toughest and Easiest SOS by BCS conference

ACC
Toughest - North Carolina: How good is Matt Baker? He attempts to replace UNC's all-time passer Darian Durant, so we'll find out.
Easiest - Boston College: No wonder they have a shot at getting to the first ever Dr. Pepper ACC Championship Game.

Big East
Toughest - Syracuse: Seeing the writing on the wall? Another season with ex-head coach Paul Pasqualoni would have only been good for yet another six win season under this scenario.
Easiest - Louisville: Reminds us of WVU last year about this time.

Big Ten
Toughest - Ohio State: September 10th game (in Columbus) versus Texas represents the nation's best cross-conference match up.
Easiest - Purdue: …no Ohio State, no Michigan, home versus Iowa and closing with Indiana and Illinois. Surprise team?

Big XII
Toughest - Oklahoma State: These days it does not help to be hanging out down South with Norman and Austin.
Easiest - Iowa State: The Cyclones stay in a race where the North Division winner maintains a 7-4 record.

Pac Ten
Toughest - UCLA: Karl Dorrell needs to win in order to get off the hot seat. He has a shot with the talent and experience on the roster. Schedule-wise...he better brush off the résumé.
Easiest - USC: The Trojans do not play themselves, which hurts their rating.

SEC
Toughest - Arkansas: Good for season ticket holders? Maybe not, as USC, Alabama, Georgia and LSU are on the road.
Easiest - Auburn: Dare we say 13-0 and no National Championship Banner? C'mon, are there truly any easy schedules in this league?